Why has Putin chosen to visit Central Asia on his first foreign trip since the war?

Russian President Vladimir Putin will make his first foreign visit since the war in Ukraine to two former Soviet nations - Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. In the Tajik capital of Dushanbe he is set to meet President Emomali Rahmon and in the Turkmenistan capital of Ashgabat, he will attend a summit of Caspian nations including the leaders of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Iran, and Turkmenistan.

Before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, Putin had met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing earlier the same month, when both leaders had vowed deeper ties.

Four months since the ongoing conflict, as Putin becomes increasingly isolated by the West, the president will be in Central Asia, an area he considers Russia’s sphere of influence even as the countries that comprise Russia’s southern neighbourhood are wary of the northern bear.

The Central Asian region which includes Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan is flanked by Russia, China, Iran, Afghanistan, and the Caspian Sea. It is locked in a region that has been susceptible to volatility in terms of geopolitical and security changes.

Most recently, Tajikistan was headed into a conflict with the Taliban which toppled the democratically elected government in Afghanistan last year. Ethnic Tajiks in Afghanistan sought shelter across the border as did other political refugees. Tajikistan has taken a tough line on the Taliban regime and has been critical of human rights violations committed by it.

It is important to remember that while these nations were former members of the USSR, they have struggled to protect their fragile independence from Russia ever since the collapse of the union in 1991. Even though the countries maintain cordial relations with their imposing big brother, they cherish their independent culture and identity. For the last three decades, these nations have walked the tightrope in balancing their relations with Russia, China, the European Union, and the United States.

Since the war on Ukraine, the nations have uneasily watched Russia, which was considered a stabilising force, not hesitate to use force to “protect” its interests. So, the nations tread a very fine line while making their opposition to Russia’s unprovoked invasion clear.

What makes Putin’s visit to Central Asia a natural choice and where do the countries that comprise this strategically important region stand on the war in Ukraine?

Tajikistan & Turkmenistan

Tajikistan and Turkmenistan have opted for neutrality, shunning all public comments on the war in Ukraine.

Russia-Tajikistan is cooperating closely on security vis-à-vis Afghanistan. The country’s economic and political fate is closely tied with Russia and the sanctions against Moscow are bound to hurt the country too in the form of remittances that it received from Tajik workers employed in Russia.

In a tough neighbourhood, Tajikistan relies heavily on Russian military support as well.

Turkmenistan also upheld its principle of “permanent neutrality” and avoided comment on Russia’s invasion. Neutrality has been a centrepiece of Turkmenistan’s national and foreign policy. It basically keeps the government away from multilateral organizations, particularly security organizations. But neutrality has also distanced Turkmenistan from the world. It too has been a rather cocooned and isolated country for years. Naturally, due to its geographic location and cultural and social exchanges, it lies in the Russian orbit but has not supported the Ukrainian invasion.

On the UN vote on a resolution demanding Kremlin immediately end its war in Ukraine, Tajikistan abstained and Turkmenistan did not vote at all. On the UNGA resolution to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council, Tajikistan voted against the resolution and Turkmenistan did not vote.

Kazakhstan

Earlier this year Kazakhstan was rocked by massive social unrest and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev had to call in Russian troops to help stabilise the situation. Analysts say Kazakhstan, the region’s richest country, may feel indebted to Russia.

However, so far, the country has not supported Russia’s war, staying neutral and offering itself up as a mediator between Russia and the West. It reportedly warned Kazakhs from joining the war in Ukraine and has tolerated small protests against Moscow’s actions.

Pro-Russian comments on social media prompted the government to warn it will clamp down on anyone raising ethnic tension or making separatist comments.

Kazakhstan also abstained from the vote at the UN on the Ukrainian issue.

Uzbekistan

Soon after Russia unleashed the war in Ukraine, Uzbekistan made an unanticipated statement saying that the “military actions and violence must be stopped right away” and that the Republic of Uzbekistan “recognises Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.”

Uzbekistan also declared that it would not recognize the Russian-controlled portions of eastern Ukraine as independent states. Incidentally, before the war, Uzbekistan was one step closer to joining the Eurasian Economic Union.

One of the most isolated countries in the world, Uzbekistan began opening up recently under current President Shavkat Mirziyoyev who implemented reforms. Uzbeks have been warned against joining a foreign military, making it known that the country wants to steer clear of the war.

Uzbekistan, along with Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan has sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

Kyrgystan

Kyrgystan may be the most vulnerable to Russian dominance. It is said that Kyrgyz public sentiment is in favour of Russia’s war. Reportedly under pressure from Moscow, the Sadyr Japarov government banned anti-war protests in Bishkek and levied fines against protesters in mid-March.

An apparently miffed Moscow is attacking Kyrgyz leaders in the press, particularly over its pursuit of bilateral cooperation with the US, even though that accord has not yet been signed. Russia demands complete loyalty from Kyrgyzstan which is economically dependent on its giant neighbour.

Kyrgyzstan had abstained from the UN resolution against Russia and voted against suspending Russia from the UNHRC.

Central Asian nations, due to history and proximity, fall under the Russian orbit. Some better-off nations like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan may try to forge other regional partnerships to check their leaning on Russia, while others like Kyrgyzstan may not be in a position to do so.

Besides their common Soviet legacy, the central Asian countries have an interesting thing in common – the problem of so-called “frozen conflicts”. These emerged when the Soviet collapsed and break-away areas of the new countries that were formed sought their own independence or reunion with Russia. The separatism in Ukraine’s Donbas region was a result of this anomaly. More exist and could be exposed due to the war in Ukraine making it harder for central Asian countries to rein in rebels in a region where the borders are already tense due to ethnic conflict.