Eknath Shinde has the numbers but will his sainiks be the real Shiv Sena?

Rebel Shiv Sena leader Eknath Khadse is flaunting his numbers from a hotel in Guwahati where he and his faction are cooling their heels before their next course of action that could tear apart the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance or the Shiv Sena party or both.

Speaking to Times Now, Shinde said that he is backed by 40 MLAs, three more than the number needed to break camp and not be disqualified under the anti-defection law. The total strength of the Shiv Sena in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly is 56, and if two thirds (that is 37) members are willing to part ways with Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray, then the breakaway faction will be allowed to merge with another party (very likely the BJP) without facing punitive action.

Shinde told Times Now, “We will hold discussions with our MLAs and further steps will be taken after the meeting. We are Balasaheb Thackeray’s Shiv Sainiks. He is our God. Whatever we are, we are because of him. We have not changed our party nor are we forming a new party.”

The real Shiv Sena

If the Shiv Sena were to split down the middle with a substantial number of MLAs supporting Eknath Shinde, the new faction would not immediately be recognised as another Sena. The anti-defection law protects the rebel legislators as long as they merge with another party.

Shinde has said that a “national party” that “took on Pakistan” has backed the rebels’ efforts to stay true to their roots. In a video he is heard telling the MLAs, “There is a national party, a ‘mahashakti’...you know they vanquished Pakistan. That party has said that we have taken a historic decision and assured to provide all help.”

This appears to be a reference to the BJP which rules the Centre and also the state of Assam which has provided a safe haven for the rebels to take refuge in. Although the BJP has denied orchestrating the potential split or supporting the rebels, the party, despite being the single largest in Maharashtra Assembly, nurses bitterness toward its oldest ally Shiv Sena that parted ways in 2019 to join hands with NCP and Congress and form the 3-party alliance that heads one of India’s richest states.

Constitutional expert PDT Achary said in an interview to Times of India, “They (the rebels) cannot form a group and function separately from a party.”

If the Sena splits, then the question over which faction represents the “real Sena” will be gauged by who commands support from not only maximum legislators but other lawmakers including Members of Parliament and office-bearing members of the party.

The Sena’s bow and arrows

Only the “real Sena” can lay claim over the party’s bow and arrow election symbol. The lesser faction would have to hunt for an election identity of its own.

The Election Commission is vested with the power to decide which of the factions is the original party and therefore has ownership of the party symbol. The apex election body does so by examining precedent, of which there are a few, and which way maximum lawmakers and office bearers lean.

Both factions will be allowed to present before the EC, and if either is dissatisfied, they can approach the Supreme Court.

Lok Janshakti Party, AIADMK and the Samajwadi Party have in recent years faced a tug of war over their respective election symbols after splits in their parent parties.

Where are the Sainiks?

Shiv Sena’s footsoldiers or the Sainiks are a tempestuous force when aroused and are infamous for raising a ruckus on the streets that paralyse life in Mumbai and other cities of Maharashtra.

Under the MVA alliance they have been forced to lie low but with rebellion threatening the existence of their own party, the workers’ opinion will matter. After all, it is through them that Shiv Sena rose to be a regional power, wielding control over the civic body and several unions that represent Mumbai’s social, cultural and economic life.

Thackeray loyalist Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut used the Sainik card to tell the rebels to back off. “Shinde faction that's challenging us must realise that Shiv Sena workers are yet to come on the roads. Such battles are fought either through law or on the roads. If need be then our workers would come on the roads,” he said.