Nitish Kumar's changing partners – The times he switched loyalties and what drove the decisions

Nitish Kumar’s reputation for switching loyalties when it suits him in order to call the shots is reinforced again with the JD(U) leader parting ways with an alliance partner for the second time in five years. He takes oath as the Chief Minister for the eighth time. Here is a look at his seven previous tenures and what his future course looks like.
Nitish Kumar’s dubious image as a turncoat is reinforced an eighth time with his latest U-turn. The Janata Dal United JD(U) chief has again switched loyalties, returning to the alliance partners – Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) - he had dumped in 2017.
Kumar’s reversal was a long time coming, it seems. He was apparently never happy with his junior partner status in the alliance with Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and had a number of public disagreements with the saffron party.
Kumar suspected that the BJP was trying to pull a Maharashtra in Bihar, and that became the last straw. He takes oath as the Chief Minister of Bihar for the record eighth time on Wednesday (August 10th).
Kumar has led the state seven times previously. Some terms were brief, at other times Kumar was able to complete his full term despite changing partners and altering the mathematics in Bihar.
First term
Nitish became the CM of undivided Bihar on March 3, 2000. Nitish was then the Samata party leader and a Union Minister in the Vajpayee cabinet. He claimed the support of 151 MLAs in the 324-member house while his rival and RJD chief Lalu Yadav had eight more MLAs with 159. Yet Nitish claimed the chair and was sworn in with backing by the BJP-ruled Centre. Protests erupted among the ranks of the RJD while there were BJP and Samata party-led efforts to bolster their numbers. These efforts failed and Nitish resigned as the CM before he could face the floor test that was ordered by the Governor. His first and short tenure ended on March 10, 2000.
Second term
Nitish served as the CM again from November 24, 2005 to November 26, 2010, completing his full five year tenure while remaining faithful to his old alliance partner BJP. These were the years before the ascendancy of Prime Minister Narendra Modi - Nitish’s friend-turned-bête noire. In the 2005 elections, the JD(U) (with which bulk of the Samata party had merged in 2003) and BJP combine won 143 seats, 21 more than the midway mark in the now divided Bihar Assembly.
Third term
Nitish returned to power with the BJP as an ally in 2010. He came back with 115 MLAs, while BJP had 91 in the 243-member Assembly. Yet, this term would be riddled with difficulties. In 2014, the year the Modi-led BJP had a landslide victory in the general elections, Nitish’s JD(U) was decimated, winning just 2 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar. The saffron wave seemed to have reversed the dynamics in the state. Nitish, who was still the CM, quit in May 2014, paving the way for Jitan Ram Manjhi to take over as successor.
Fourth term
But Nitish was quick to change his mind. Calling his decision to step down “a mistake”, he wanted his chair back from a reluctant Manjhi who refused to be unseated. Manjhi had to be expelled for anti-party activities and then the leader resigned before the floor test, vacating Nitish’s throne. He was sworn in again with support from RJD and Congress on November 20, 2015.
Fifth term
Ahead of the 2017 Assembly elections, Nitish teamed up with the Congress and RJD, now led by Lalu Yadav’s son and heir Tejashwi Yadav. The old rivals had joined hands with the Congress to make what was called the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ or Grand Alliance.
The ‘grand design’ of the alliance, however, could not meet its lofty goal because Nitish was becoming wary of Tejashwi’s prominence. After all, the RJD was the single largest party with 80 seats and JD(U) was reduced to just 71 (from the 115 it won in 2010). The Mahagathbandhan had 178 seats out of 243.
Sixth term
Corruption cases against the Yadav family and Tejashwi yadav’s name coming up in a money laundering case presented the perfect opportunity for Nitish to call it quits while retaining the ‘moral high ground’. He resigned and was installed as CM within 24 hours again with support from the BJP. From July 27, 2017 to November 16, 2020 he served with the Mahagathbandhan and then parted ways to reunite with the BJP till the end of his tenure.
Seventh term
Nitish managed to retain the chair in 2020 even though his party’s support continued to dwindle. The BJP let Nitish be at the helm despite the saffron party winning 74 seats, while JD(U) managed only 43. The RJD remained the single-largest party with 75 seats. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) had secured a thin majority of 125 in the 243-member house.
But trouble began brewing between the BJP and JD(U) again as the bigger alliance partner tried to allegedly downsize the JD(U). Nitish felt that the decision by Chirag Paswan’s LJP to field candidates only against JD(U) in the 2020 elections was BJP’s ploy to shave off his votes. Nitish also reportedly nursed ambitions to be the President but that also did not materialise. It was believed in the JD(U) camp that what they called the ‘Chirag model’ (a supposed conspiracy to eliminate JD(U)) would be employed again. Nitish was convinced that the BJP was out to finish his party, fears that were put in words by Tejashwi Yadav when he claimed ahead of meeting the Governor on Tuesday: “Look at what they do to allies. Across the Hindi heartland, the BJP does not have any alliance partners. History tells us that the BJP destroys the parties with whom it forms an alliance. We did see that happening in Punjab and Maharashtra.”
Eighth term
As Nitish takes oath to be the CM for an eighth time, there is speculation whether this alliance will survive. The Mahagathbandhan wants to keep Nitish in good humour it appears, so his claim on the chair is safe for now. Nitish may have more liberty in calling the shots in his state, unless he has differences with Tejashwi’s style of functioning again. He may also believe that being in the opposition fold at the time of an opposition leadership vacuum ahead of the 2024 general elections, boosts his chances for Prime Ministership – his long sought after goal. This could be an opportune time for him to stake claim to be the opposition candidate since Trinamool chief and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee seems to be preoccupied with corruption scandals in her state. Nitish, being a leader from the Hindi belt, is likely to have a greater national appeal than Mamata.
Yet, the man once hailed as the ‘Vikas Purush’ seems to have conceded that space to BJP’s Modi and is painted ‘Paltu Ram’ due to his multiple switches in order to remain in power. Could such a mercurial politician be the linchpin for a splintered opposition? Also, such a reputation does not bode well for someone who seeks to be the Prime Minister. Meanwhile, age is not on Nitish’s side either when it comes to facing off against a matured Tejashwi, now his Deputy once again, and the leader of the single largest party in bihar, the second time in a row.
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