Biden warns military action on China to defend Taiwan: Will it turn out be the next flashpoint in geopolitics after Ukraine?

In the backdrop of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Chinese ambitions in the Indo-Pacific have raised concerns over whether the eastern European script could play out in this region. In recent years, China has been circling Taiwan, coming uncomfortably close to the island nation during its naval and air exercises. Communist China claims self-ruled, democratic Taiwan as its territory while Taiwan (officially called the Republic of China or RoC) stresses its independence.

Amid the escalating tensions between the two nations, whose ties are the “worst in 40 years” according to Taiwan’s defence minister, US President Joe Biden has stirred worry after claiming that America would go further in its assistance to Taiwan in the event of an attack. Biden said that the US is prepared to defend Taiwan militarily if attacked (by China), assistance the US has held back even for Ukraine.

When prompted further by a reporter at a news conference in Tokyo, Biden said the US “made a commitment” to Taiwan and would honour that. His words reportedly shocked some members of his own administration because the US has treaded the path of “strategic ambiguity” as far as Taiwan is concerned, and has never been outspoken about the kind of aid it would extend to Taiwan in case of Chinese aggression.

Biden’s apparent resolve to defend Taiwan is a contrast to the approach taken in Ukraine where the US did not get militarily involved. A White House spokesperson attempted to clarify the president’s statement: “He (Biden) reiterated our ‘One China’ policy and our commitment to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. He also reiterated our commitment under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide Taiwan with the military means to defend itself,” the White House said.

Biden said at the conference: “We agreed with the One China policy, we signed on to it... but the idea that it can be taken by force is just not appropriate.”

One China Policy

Under the One China Policy, the US recognises and has formal ties with China, not Taiwan, which China views as a breakaway province from the mainland. The US subscribed to the One China policy in 1979 and as part of the deal has had to close its embassy in Taipei. But the same year, the US passed the Taiwan Relations Act under which the nation is guaranteed security by the US and that is how Washington continues to sell arms to the island despite no formal diplomatic ties. The US also maintains an unofficial presence in Taiwan via the American Institute.

However, it is important to distinguish the One China Policy as elaborated before and the One-China Principle, under which the Communist regime believes Taiwan should be reunited with the mainland, even by force if required, something Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated last year, sparking tensions. His statement had come at a time when China was sending a record number of military jets into Taiwan’s air defence zone, possibly as a warning.

The US endorses diplomatic resolution to the conflict between China and Taiwan.

Taiwan came into existence in 1949 after Communists led by Mao Zedong took control of China or the People’s Republic of China, while the nationalist government forces were defeated and fled to Taiwan or the Republic of China. There the nationalist party – the Kuomintang – established a government and has been one of the most important political parties since.

The Cuban Missile crisis

The US shifted its focus to the Indo-Pacific even as war rages on in eastern Europe in a signal to China to no attempt misadventures in the region.

The US is keeping a watchful eye there learning from China’s tendency to exploit geopolitical disturbances to further its expansionist policies. Back in 1962, when the US and USSR were locked in a tense standoff in the Cuban Missile Crisis, China chose that moment to attack India’s Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh. The short but savage war ended with China unilaterally calling for a ceasefire a day after the Cuban Missile Crisis was defused.

The Russian playbook

Could China adopt the Russian playbook in the Indo-Pacific theatre? While there are parallels between the conflict in Europe and the brewing tensions in Asia, both China and Taiwan can draw lessons from the Ukraine-Russia war.

Even though China surpasses Taiwan in military capability, an all-out invasion of its neighbour would be costly for China. Even a relatively weaker Ukraine has successfully stalled the Russian advance in a war that has dragged on for over 3 months now. Taiwan, by comparison, has spent heavily on upgrading its military and is believed can thwart a Chinese attack, not considering US intervention.

However, some analysts are more cautious in drawing similarities between the European and Asian situations, primarily because of geography. They say that on one hand any Chinese invasion could be detected from miles away as the forces would have to cross roughly 100 miles of seawater to reach Taiwan, and on the other hand Taiwan could face a naval and air blockade snapping routes for reinforcements from allies. Also, they say that fewer countries may rally around Taiwan since only 13 nations recognise the island as a sovereign nation.