Putin mobilises population for military service in Ukraine - The war is losing support even from Russians

As the superior Russian army mobilises part of its population to reinforce its boots on the ground in the western border, flights out of Russia get fully booked and ‘how to leave Russia’ hits the top of the trends list. The war is likely losing popular support in Russia but the citizens’ failure to organise and unite can help Kremlin crush dissent.
Putin mobilises population

Russia can in theory mobilise some 25 million people for military service but is only calling upon 1 per cent of that reserve force which would amount to 300,000 additional personnel. These will be people who have specialised skills and can include those reserve officers serving retirement as well.

Photo : REUTERS
Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered a partial mobilisation of the population to reinforce its army in the war against Ukraine. Putin has earlier called the invasion a ‘military operation’ but perhaps to justify its call to the reservists – people who have had military training – he struck a more alarmist tone claiming that Russian survival was at stake due to the threat posed by western powers.
He also repeated the nuclear threat, and some analysts say that this time he might mean it.
Putin, in his public address on Wednesday, confirmed that Russia was planning to annex regions its military has captured in the Donbas region after a referendum that is likely to go in Moscow’s favour. International media reported that the referendums will start on Friday in the Luhansk, Kherson and partly Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions.

Who will be mobilised?

Russia can in theory mobilise some 25 million people for military service but is only calling upon 1 per cent of that reserve force which would amount to 300,000 additional personnel. These will be people who have specialised skills and can include those reserve officers serving retirement as well.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the conscripts would not be sent to fight in Ukraine but are needed to defend the frontlines that extend for some 1000 km.
The reservists may do little to aid Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Many of them would need additional training since the instructions they received before may have become rusty or outdated. Russia requires all men aged 18-27 to do military service at least for one year but many find a way out based on medical grounds.

Why Russia needs reservists?

Russia says the reservists will not be sent into combat in Ukraine. This is Moscow’s first mobilisation since World War II although it had sent conscripts to fight in Afghanistan in the 1980s and to Chechnya at the turn of the century – two highly unpopular decisions since many conscripts died in those conflicts.
Russia’s far superior military seems to be buckling before Ukraine as the west support Russia’s smaller neighbour with weapons and other countries send relief material. Ukraine too has mobilised its people, many of them have joined voluntarily to defend their country.
As the military might gap narrows, Russia has said that it needs reinforcements since it is battling not just Kyiv but the whole of NATO. This is notable since at the beginning of what Russia calls a ‘military operation’ it had expected to crush the small western neighbour within days. The war is on 7 months hence and is expected to drag on as Putin effectively escalated hostilities.

Flights out of Russia sell out

Post Putin’s address, the most searched topic on the internet was ‘how to leave Russia’. Hardliners had been calling for such a move but those directly affected have a different opinion.
Rallies led by student groups have erupted in Russia though they are smaller than the February anti-war rallies. Google Trends showed that internet users in the country were searching for ‘how to leave Russia’ as well as ‘how to break an arm’ in the hours before Putin’s address. Al Jazeera reported that on Wednesday, all flights to Istanbul and all to Yeravan were sold out.
However, opposition to the conscription is expected to die out or be crushed. This can be done because Russia has no civil society and an autocratic government wields its power on a fragmented society.
Moscow has said that the reservists who fail to report to duty will be treated the same as regular, contract soldiers.

War loses popular support

However, even the Kremlin has gone easy on the mobilisation – for now. It has said that those who are conscripted would not be sent into battle. However, with a ground force that is highly fatigued and also dead, Ukraine and western media claims, it would need more boots on the ground in Ukraine to hold the land that it has annexed.
US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said, “Putin has suffered tens of thousands of casualties, has command and control issues, terrible troop morale, desertion problems and is forcing the wounded back (into) the fight.” Russia has said it won’t include students and former conscripts.
Russia puts its death toll at 5,937 soldiers. The west estimates that Russia has lost tens of thousands of troops.
The flight bookings and search engine trends indicate that even if nationalist sentiments drove Russians to support the war, the mobilisation is an unpopular decision.
Still, besides sporadic protests that are quickly stamped out, the Russian public has been unable to do much else. But as the war stretches and sanctions and inflation bite the common man, economic distress might inspire a fresh wave of protest against the establishment.
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