Hardik Patel removes Congress from Twitter bio: Will his departure hit the grand old party in Gujarat Assembly elections?

Gujarat Congress Working President Hardik Patel dropped the Congress reference from his Twitter bio, a step usually seen among politicians as a precursor to conclusively snapping ties with their party. Jyotiraditya Scindia too had created a flutter after removing his affiliation to Congress from Twitter months before he formally joined the BJP in 2020.

In Gujarat, Congress is now poorer for the demise of its main troubleshooter Ahmed Patel, who died of Covid-related complications in 2020. Incidentally, his son Faisal Patel is rumoured to be exploring his options with AAP, which is making a poll debut in Gujarat this year.

Hardik Patel ‘sidelined’

Hardik Patel, the youth Patidar leader who created a stir in Gujarat by leading the quota agitation in 2015, has been complaining that he feels sidelined by the state Congress leadership. In a recent interview, he told The Indian Express that the state Congress leadership was “not utilising” him enough. But he was careful not to attack the high command.

Congress placed its bet on Patel and his outfit Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti to revive the party in Gujarat ahead of the 2019 General elections after the grand old party gave the ruling BJP a stiff competition in the 2017 Assembly polls, thanks, in part, to the Patel-led agitation.

The then 24-year-old Hardik Patel had, in 2017, backed the Congress, being too young to contest himself. Clearly, the momentum of the Patidar agitation was still strong, and the Congress won 81 out of 182 assembly seats in the state elections in 2017. However, political analysts said the Patidar factor may have had a limited impact only. The BJP still held sway in the Patel-dominated areas of Surat city and Mehsana. Varachha Road seat was won by BJP, a place that once was brimming with people at Hardik Patel’s rallies. Mehsana, the launchpad of the Patidar stir voted for Deputy Chief Minister Nitin Patel.

Another factor that could have played a role in Congress’s good show was the fact that in both 2015 and 2017, Opposition votes were drawn by the Congress entirely. Leader of Opposition Paresh Dhanani, who resigned after Congress’s 2019 rout had said in an interview that in 2007 and 2012, the Mahagujarat Janata Party of Gordhan Zadaphia and Gujarat Parivartan Party of Keshubhai Patel had split Opposition votes.

The biggest gains were made by Congress at the peak of the Patidar agitation in 2015, when it had swept the local body polls in rural areas, winning 23 of 31 district panchayats and 146 of 231 taluka panchayats that went to polls.

BJP corrects its course

Meanwhile, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP reversed its losses in the 2017 Assembly elections and the 2015 local body polls by sweeping the state once again, as it did in 2014.

The Patidars, a largely agrarian community, are considered to hold sway in rural areas, where the BJP had concentrated its efforts after the 2017 humbling when BJP went down from 115 (in 2012) to 99 (in 2017) in the 182-member Assembly.

Learning fast, and making amends quickly, the BJP, made space for more Patidar leaders in the state cabinet ahead of 2019. Six Patidar leaders took the oath of office that year. Moreover, seven leaders from the state found their place in the Modi Cabinet when it expanded in 2021.

It appears the BJP had plugged its losses completely by the 2021 local body polls. The party claimed victory in all 31 district panchayats, around 200 of 231 taluka panchayats, and 75 of 81 municipalities that went to polls. The Congress, which had made significant gains in 2015 amid the Patidar agitation, was washed out even in its bastions.

After the emphatic victory, the then CM Vijay Rupani told party workers: “In 2017, we won (and) formed the government. (We) won all 26 seats in Lok Sabha. In 2020, (we) snatched all eight Assembly seats (in the bypolls) from Congress bastions. And now, in the beginning of 2021, we have won all these district panchayats, taluka panchayats, municipalities and municipal corporations. This (victory) has laid the foundation for the formation of a BJP government in 2022 (after the Assembly elections).”

On Friday (April 29), PM Modi virtually inaugurated the Global Patidar Business Summit (GPBS), ahead of the Gujarat Assembly polls later this year. The outreach to the influential Patidars, who make 12% of Gujarat’s vote base, was clear. It is believed that the Patidars have been sealing the deal for the BJP in Gujarat, a state the party has won 6 times in a row so far.

Will BJP continue the streak?

It appears the Patidar agitation after-affects have evaporated and Hardik Patel’s influence seems to be on the wane, at least in the Congress, which indicates the initial tailwinds the grand old party received by the quota stir have lost their intensity.

Will Hardik Patel’s possible exit from the Congress hit its political ambitions in Gujarat? That seems unlikely as Hardik Patel no longer seems to wield a trump card, and the BJP seems to have secured the Patidar votes by aggressively troubleshooting since 2017.