Ukraine war could last for years, warns NATO chief: What led to this assessment

Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary-General of NATO has said that the Russia-Ukraine war could last for years. In an interview with the German tabloid newspaper Bild, published on Sunday, Stoltenberg urged other nations not to give up their support for Ukraine as the repercussions of the war could be detrimental.

In response to the interviewer’s question on how long this war could potentially last, Stoltenberg reportedly said, “Nobody knows” adding that the world must prepare for the fact that it could take years. “Even if the costs are high, not only for military support but also because of rising energy and food prices. But, that is no comparison to the price that the Ukrainians have to pay every day with many lives,” he said.

Stoltenberg also had a message for Putin during the interview: “If Putin learns from this war that he can simply carry on as he did after the 2008 war in Georgia and the occupation of Crimea in 2014, then we will pay a much higher price.” It has been almost four months since the Russian troops invaded Ukraine. Disrupted supply chains, rising prices of food commodities, food security crisis, energy crisis, nations rethinking alliances and a volatile geopolitical situation have been the order of the days since, and the world has been waiting for a day when both the sides would call it an end to the war, which has claimed thousands of civilian lives and has created more than five million Ukrainian refugees. However, with foreign aid pouring in for Kyiv and sanctions being imposed on Moscow, the day seems far far away now.

Echoing Stoltenberg’s words, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson also said, “I am afraid that we need to steel ourselves for a long war,” he said, adding that it was necessary “to enlist time on Ukraine’s side”.

What led to this analysis?

Four months of intense war have taken a toll on the morale of troops on both sides, straining and shaking the resolve of soldiers, and prompting desertions and rebellion against officers’ orders. This assessment comes from the British Defense Ministry’s daily assessment of the war.

“Combat units from both sides are committed to intense combat in the Donbas and are likely experiencing variable morale,” the assessment said. “Ukrainian forces have likely suffered desertions in recent weeks,” the report said, but added that “Russian morale highly likely remains especially troubled.”

In the recent weeks, Ukrainian troops have taken heavy losses, as Russian forces have been blasting their way into Severodonetsk using artillery fire. As the battle for Severodonetsk — the easternmost part of the Donbas, where the Ukrainian forces still have defensive positions — has been raging in its final phase, the Russian soldiers seem to be running out of morale faster than the Ukrainian forces seem to be running out of supplies. This is despite the Russian troops having more than 80 per cent control of the industrial city of Severodonetsk, and gaining an upper hand by destroying all bridges over the Donets River linking Severodonetsk with its sister city — Lysychansk. The Ukrainian troops in Severodonetsk are now trapped with no supplies.

Once Severodonetsk and Lysychansk fall to Russia, the entire Luhansk Oblast will be in its hands. This will allow Russia to march towards Kramatorsk, the last industrial city in the Donbas still with Ukraine.

Reading into Stoltenberg’s statement, it seems that the West has come to believe that Ukraine cannot achieve a rapid military breakthrough despite the anticipated arrival of NATO-standard weapons and ammunition. While Western-supplied heavy weapons are reaching the frontlines, officials in Kyiv have continued to call for rapid help and have insisted for weeks that they need more arms and they need them sooner.

On the other hand, Russian forces have also witnessed a fair share of losses coupled with heavy economic sanctions on Moscow. As per the British war assessment report, “cases of whole Russian units refusing orders and armed stand-offs between officers and their troops continue to occur.”

Independently, a report by the Institute for the Study of War has revealed that the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate released what it said were intercepted phone calls in which Russian soldiers complained about frontline conditions, poor equipment, and overall lack of personnel.

Moscow vs. Kyiv: Neither is willing to back down

Backed by NATO and the West, Zelensky is not willing to back down. On the other hand, doesn’t want to stop Russia’s aggression since he’s always protested against western hostilities.

The NATO intervention in Yugoslavia in the 1990s is always taken as a favourite Russian example of the west’s willingness to flout international boundaries when beneficial for their own interests. The West oversaw the fragmentation of Yugoslavia and supported the breaking away of Kosovo from Russian-backed Serbia.

Another reason for Putin to continue carrying out this war is his purported belief that he is protecting Russian speakers in Ukraine. For him, this cause is as justifiable a reason for intervention as those offered by the West in the case of Yugoslavia.

Zelensky, on the other hand, maintains that Ukraine will not surrender any of its lands to aim for peace. He had said that while Ukrainians don’t have any intention of taking someone else’s land, they will not back down when met with hostility on their own land. Ukraine is fighting for its right to self-determination and its government and people have already shown that they are prepared to make great sacrifices in order to defend their national sovereignty.

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have failed because Russian aggression continues to escalate. It might not be far from the truth to predict that this war might last for years.

When both sides are struggling to vanquish each other, this war could go on for a long time, especially with the setbacks each side is receiving on a regular basis. The longer the war drags on, the greater the risk of the NATO allies being pulled in entirely, and such an event would pose the risk of a much more serious global conflict.