What happens if US Supreme Court overturns nationwide abortion rights?

A precedent set in 1973 could be undone soon if the US Supreme Court decides to overturn nationwide abortion rights. Many US states already have laws restricting abortion in place that could come into effect if the Supreme Court withdraws the protection it gives to women for autonomy over their bodies.

As per a draft Supreme Court opinion, leaked to the media, a majority of the judges reportedly were in favour of overruling Roe Vs Wade, the landmark judgment in 1973 that granted women abortion rights over the last nearly 50 years.

It is to be noted that never in modern US history has a Supreme Court draft opinion reached the public. While acknowledging the veracity of the leak, the court has ordered an investigation into it. It should also be remembered that history is witness to the fact that draft opinions can sometimes bear little resemblance to the final ruling of the court.

However, the leak has sent shockwaves through the United States which is gearing up for a mid-term election cycle. Abortion rights as a voter issue may even eclipse other voting agendas like the economy, immigration, and crime. If the Supreme Court overturns Roe, politicians will decide the fate of women in their states.

Who is against abortion?

In the US, hostility to abortion rights is believed to be growing. However, most surveys still show that a majority support full or limited access to abortion. For example, according to a Pew Research done in 2019, 62% of Americans said that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Only 38% said it should be illegal in all or most cases. A CBS News survey in 2021, reported that 62% of Americans questioned said they would want to keep the ruling in place, but only 38% wanted it scrapped.

Republicans have most often taken a regressive stance on abortion. 3 of the 9 Supreme Court judges, who are appointed for life, were named by former US President Donald Trump. All three of them reportedly are in favour of striking down Roe vs Wade.

However, some Republicans are also sympathetic to abortion rights.

What happens if Roe is overturned?

Abortion will not immediately become illegal in all of America, however, the ruling can severely restrict access to abortion for many disadvantaged women.

More than 20 US states have laws already in place that could come into effect if the Supreme Court were to strike down Roe. These are called “trigger laws” and they will enable the states to ban or restrict abortion after the top court ruling.

There could be a migration for medical care to states that continue to permit abortion and that could burden their infrastructure. Anticipating this, some states could also put a ban on travelling for abortion.

Most analysts say that women of colour will be at the greatest disadvantage by an abortion ban. According to The Associated Press, Black and Hispanic women get abortions at higher rates than their peers. Women of color also experience higher poverty rates and could have a harder time traveling out of state for an abortion, the AP said in a report earlier this year.

When women are forced to have babies they want to abort, they often raise the child alone amid financial hardship. A University of California, San Francisco study found that these women were at greater risk of developing serious health problems than those who had had abortions.

Some Democrat-ruled states are enshrining the right to abortion in their respective state laws. They also seek to guarantee abortion services to people who live in states where the practice is banned.

Texas model

Last year, in Republican-dominated Texas, a ban on abortion after six weeks of pregnancy was introduced. While the state reported a sharp drop in abortion rates, it prompted many women to travel to other places offering the service.

Importantly, even then, the Supreme Court had allowed the Texas law to remain in effect indefinitely. That perhaps showed which way the Supreme Court was tilting on the issue.

Meanwhile, nothing is concrete about the future of US abortion laws, but the leaked document has polarised politicians and might have an impact on the elections.