Taiwan Strait turns tense ahead of Pelosi's visit – China may escalate provocation but limit itself to angry rhetoric

Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, is expected to arrive in Taipei later on Tuesday as a part of her tour of Asia, according to Taiwanese and US government officials. The visit comes despite China repeatedly warning against Pelosi going to Taiwan — a territory which Beijing claims as its own. In response, the United States said on Monday that it would not be intimidated by Chinese “sabre rattling" over the visit and warned China against overreacting to the trip, saying Pelosi would have every right to visit the self-ruled island despite Beijing viewing it as a highly provocative challenge.

In a statement released on Sunday, Pelosi confirmed that a delegation would travel to the Indo-Pacific “to reaffirm America’s strong and unshakeable commitment to our allies and friends in the region.” Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan were the countries listed in the statement. High-level meetings that advanced shared interests and values, including peace and security, economic growth and trade and the Covid-19 pandemic, constitute a part of this trip.

“Under the strong leadership of President Biden, America is firmly committed to smart, strategic engagement in the region, understanding that a free and flourishing Indo-Pacific is crucial to prosperity in our nation and around the globe,” Pelosi added.

The statement did not mention the visit to Taiwan. However, on Monday, Taiwan premier Su Tseng-chang cryptically told the reporters, “We always warmly welcome visits to our country by distinguished foreign guests,” in response to a question on Pelosi’s visit.

The White House Speaker was expected to visit Taiwan in April, but the trip was postponed after she came down with Covid-19. Her intention to visit Taiwan this August has angered Beijing and prompted threats of military countermeasures. According to reports, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan could hinder cross-strait relations for decades.

The Dragon breathes fire

According to a CNN report, China has warned against the “egregious political impact” of Pelosi’s planned visit to Taiwan. Beijing said that it “won’t sit by idly” if it feels that its “sovereignty and territorial integrity” is being threatened.

“We would like to tell the US once again that China is standing by, and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army will never sit idly by. China will take resolute responses and strong countermeasures to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. And for what measures, if she dares to go, then let’s wait and see,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian reportedly said.

The People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command has reportedly said that it would “bury incoming enemies” in a video posted on Monday that displayed its weaponry and fighting capabilities, although the Chinese military did not explicitly mention Taiwan.

The US expects China to "act responsibly"

According to a BBC report, President Joe Biden has said that the US military believes that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is “not a good idea right now.”

However, Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that it is entirely up to Pelosi whether or not she wants to visit Taiwan. “Congress is an independent, coequal branch of government,” Blinken said at the United Nations on Monday. “The decision is entirely the Speaker’s.”

“And so if the Speaker does decide to visit and China tries to create some kind of crisis or otherwise escalate tensions that would be entirely on Beijing. We are looking for them, in the event she decides to visit, to act responsibly and not engage in any escalation going forward,” Blinken added.

But why does Pelosi want to visit Taiwan?

Nancy Pelosi has been a staunch critic of China throughout her stint in Congress for more than 35 years. She once even unfurled a banner on Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, memorializing those who lost their lives in the bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protestors in 1989. She also supported the 2019 pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, making her the target of massive criticism from Beijing.

According to an AP report, Taiwan enjoys bipartisan support in Congress with Pelosi’s supporters, including a conservative Republican senator, at least two former Trump administration officials and the last speaker of the House, also a Republican. They have urged Biden to back Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, who has not until now said publicly that Pelosi should not go.

Pelosi said last week that it was “important for us to show support for Taiwan.” Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen has defied Beijing’s threats, and her administration has favoured democratic values close to Pelosi’s beliefs, which include same-sex marriage and a strong social security net.

Taiwan has so far been very non-committal on Pelosi’s visit. It has welcomed foreign dignitaries from different countries despite protests from China. Yet, it remains relatively low-key on such visits, signalling its attempt not to invite the Chinese wrath because Beijing remains a crucial economic partner, not to mention around a million Taiwanese who reside in mainland China.

Taipei staged a civil defence drill on Monday and Tsai on Tuesday attended annual military exercises. This, however, reportedly has no connections with a possible Pelosi visit. Defence Ministry spokesperson Sun Li-fang said that the military was actively monitoring all movements of Chinese warships and aircraft around the island and that they have “the confidence and ability to ensure the security of our country.”

Beijing is expected to retaliate, but limit itself to angry rhetoric

According to reports, US officials say they have no reliable intelligence on what the Chinese government may be planning. Nonetheless, they expect the largest reaction could come after Pelosi leaves Taiwan. This could be in the form of military manoeuvres in the Taiwan Strait, cyberattacks or communication cutoffs that would prove Beijing’s ability to take control of the island.

In recent weeks, American intelligence officials have also warned that China may be preparing to act against Taiwan sooner rather than later. With the U.S. helping Taiwan with military support, as in the case of Ukraine fighting against Russia, officials suggest that China may want to make a move against Taiwan in the next 18 months, lest they lose their military advantage.

What Xi Jinping decides to do will reveal the future image of China under his hands. Analysts suggest that if he reacts adversely, that might spoil his own image in the eyes of the world and his population. “Xi is the most powerful leader since Mao - why would he have to even react to this?” Gal Luft, co-director of the Washington-based Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, told the South China Morning Post. “To be sure, the party apparatus will try to capitalise on such a visit, but an overreaction to a visit of an octogenarian who will soon be kicked out of her job as speaker… will only be s sign of insecurity, inviting more of the same.”

“Self-confidence is the ability to exercise restraint in the face of provocations and disrespect. The world knows the purpose of the visit is a provocation. What is yet to determine is whether China is a confident superpower or an insecure and easily rattled wannabe,” Luft added.