Maharashtra political crisis: How the Governor will play a key role in what happens next

Decisions that chart the future of Maharashtra are being taken at a hotel in Guwahati and the Supreme Court premises. But political action may finally return to the state’s Legislative Assembly as rebel Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde mulls approaching the Governor for a floor test according to the latest reports.

Shinde and the MLAs who back him have been camping at Guwahati’s Radisson Blu hotel since last week, putting a safe 2000 plus kilometre distance between Mumbai and themselves as a safegueard against any “influence” from the Thackerays in Maharashtra.

On Monday, the apex court granted relief to the 15 rebel Sena MLAs to whom Maharashtra Deputy speaker Narhari Zirwal had shot off disqualification notices under the anti-defection law. However, the Shinde camp, emboldened by the numbers on their side, challenged the notices calling them “vengeful” and “illegal”.

In their writ petition, the rebels argued that Zirwal has no authority to invoke Members of Maharashtra Legislative Assembly (Disqualification on Ground of Defection) Rules 1986 as he has lost his position because the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance is now a “minority government”.

The Maharashtra tangle

Staying the Deputy Speaker’s disqualification notice, the Supreme Court on Monday gave the rebel MLAs time till July 12 to reply to the notices. The next hearing on the matter is on July 11.

The rebel faction has challenged Deputy Speaker Zirwal’s decisions too since he recognised the appointment of Sewree MLA Ajay Chaudhary as group leader of Shiv Sena on the floor of the Assembly, replacing Shinde.

Shinde and his MLAs also do not want Zirwal, a Nationalist Congress Party man, to decide on their fate and as such have moved a no-trust motion against Zirwal to remove him from the post.

Reports say that Shinde may approach the Governor for appointment of a Speaker, the post for which has been lying vacant since February 2021, and then conduct a floor test to prove his majority.

The Shinde faction claims the support of 38 MLAs, one more than the number required to buck the anti-defection law that would otherwise disqualify the members. They say that Shinde is the leader of the legislature party since they have the weight in numbers. However, the Shinde camp still has another legal hurdle to cross - it needs to either merge with the BJP (which is the single largest party in Maharashtra) or prove a vertical split in the party to escape the law.

Meanwhile, the role of the Deputy Speaker has assumed significance in Maharashtra because no Speaker was appointed in the state since Congress MLA Nana Patole resigned from the post in February 2021 when he was made the state party chief. As the role of the Speaker is bipartisan, Patole could not continue to serve as both. MVA allies NCP and Shiv Sena were strongly against this and they resisted an election through secret ballot because they were afraid it would expose vcracks in the alliance due to cross voting, something they were able to minimize damage from in the 2019 election. They had suggested a voice vote, to which Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari was opposed.

So, since then the post was unoccupied. As head of the state, the Governor can notify the date for the Speaker’s election.

Recall that in the power-sharing agreement between the three parties constituting the MVA alliance, Shiv Sena wanted and got the chief minister’s post, the NCP was given the post of the deputy chief minister while the Congress got the post of the speaker.

The courts have been approached by the aggrieved party because the issue of defection comes under Tenth Schedule of the Constitution under which the court can intervene subject to certain conditions.

Ball in Koshyari’s court?

Under Article 175(2) of the Constitution of India the Governor has the power to summon the House and call for a floor test to prove the government has a majority.

The Governor cannot however dismiss an elected Chief Minister on his subjective assessment of the strength of the government. If an elected Council of Ministers lose the confidence of the Legislative Assembly then that needs to be tested on the floor of the House. Experts say the Governor can direct a floor test amid the Supreme Court hearing if he is approached by any of the factions who claim to have majority.

There are two possible scenarios next. CM Uddhav Thackeray may seek dissolution of the House or a special Assembly session to prove his majority. Or the rebels may send signatures of two thirds of all Sena MLAs to the Governor and claim a legitimate split, then tie up with the BJP to form an alternate government in the state.

However, this time Koshyari’s actions will be watched very closely after he received much criticism following his “hasty” decision to appoint a government in Maharashtra post the 2019 Assembly election. While his moves were dissected by politicians and experts, there was no illegality in his conduct. However, members of the Congress, NCP and Sena, which was then thrashing out the possible MVA alliance 15 days after the term of the previous Assembly expired, had charged Koshyari as being a BJP puppet.

When on the midnight of November 23, Koshyari revoked President’s rule (an exception rather than the norm) after receiving a letter from BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis staking claim to form the government, the Governor was, in his defence, “restoring democracy” to the state.

That experiment lasted a turbulent 80 hours only, falling apart when NCP’s Ajit Pawar did not in fact have the support of MLAs he claimed he did.

Koshyari’s tearing hurry in administering oath to the BJP-NCP combine was also ridiculed. This time, however, Koshyari may reflect on his decisions more carefully considering the state already has a ruling government, unlike the last time when administration was paralysed in the absence of the executive. Also, the lessons from the midnight drama serve as a precedent to the consequences of hasty decision-making.